19/20 Complete Transfer Window Review

Sofyan Amrabat, Dylan Bronn and Joao Felix

Now that the Winter transfer window is concluded, transfer activity for the entire 2019/20 season can be assessed.

In the Summer Transfer Window Review, Real Madrid were found to be the least efficient Club whilst Eintracht Frankfurt were the most efficient. This remains the case after the January transfer window, with Madrid’s efficiency worsening from -£190.54m to -£209.08m. Eintracht Frankfurt didn’t complete any ‘significant’ transfers over the winter and so its efficiency is unaffected.

Similarly, the previous window review identified Atletico Madrid’s purchase of Joao Felix to be the least efficient transfer whilst Lille’s sale of Nicolas Pepe was the most efficient. No January transfer surpassed these moves so these players remain.

However, a new feature for this review is regarding our most accurate valuation of the season which was found to be the deal struck between Inter Milan and Manchester United for the transfer of Romelu Lukaku, with just a 0.14% difference between the player’s valuation and eventual £58.50m transfer fee.

Due to the Belgian’s considerable experience at the highest level of domestic and international football the player is valued at £58.58m. It should also be noted that at 26 years of age, Lukaku could still improve further and should have at least another five years at his peak. Therefore, there remains potential for Inter to make a profit on the player in the next few years. However, valuations do not consider a player’s performances or marketability. For this reason, Lukaku could prove to be worth significantly more than this figure to Antonio Conte’s side.

So far this season, Lukaku’s tally of 17 goals is only bettered by Cristiano Ronaldo and Ciro Immobile in his 25 league appearances. This has led Inter to 3rd position in Serie A, nine points behind leaders Juventus albeit with a game in hand.

To see the full analysis on Real Madrid, Eintracht Frankfurt, Joao Felix and Nicolas Pepe, take a look back at the Summer Transfer Window review here: https://thetransferlist.co.uk/index.php/home/updates/1920-summer-transfer-window-review

Leagues:

The only change in the league efficiency rankings saw Serie A rise above the Bundesliga into 3rd place thanks to shrewd acquisitions such as Inter’s purchase of Christian Eriksen and Sampdoria’s move for Jeison Murillo.

Rank / (Previous)LeagueTransfer Variance (m)Percentage of Variance
1Liga NOS£186.4633%
2Ligue 1£67.595%
3 ↑ (4)Serie A-£36.82-2%
4 ↓ (3)Bundesliga-£59.73-4%
5La Liga-£333.10-15%
6Premier League-£626.72-27%
7Russian Premier League-£97.80-37%

However, there were some big changes to the efficiency rankings within each league which will be discussed below.

Efficiency Tables:

Premier League

Position / (Previous)ClubTotal Transfer Variance (m)
1 ↑ (2)Crystal Palace£49.00
 2 ↓ (1)Chelsea£39.33
3Liverpool£15.82
4 ↑ (6)Burnley£4.89
5Leicester£2.24
6 ↑ (7)Bournemouth-£1.70
7 ↓ (4)Norwich-£3.49
8Everton-£12.84
9Watford-£9.88
10Newcastle-£20.00
11Southampton-£20.80
12Sheffield United-£22.55
13 ↓ (9)Wolves-£31.56
 14 ↑ (15)Brighton-£40.81
15 ↓ (14)West Ham-£53.13
16Manchester City-£70.12
17 ↑ (18)Aston Villa-£83.00
18 ↓ (16)Tottenham-£85.30
19Manchester United-£126.87
20Arsenal-£155.95

In the Premier League, Crystal Palace leapfrogged Chelsea into first position due to the Blues sale of Michael Hector to Fulham for below his market value.

Norwich dropped three positions from the previous review after completing its first ‘significant’ transfer of the season, purchasing Sam McCallum from Coventry for £3.74m. Whilst the player was certainly recruited as a future prospect, McCallum’s current valuation equates to an overspend of £3.49m, leading to the Club’s fall in position.

La Liga

Position / (Previous)ClubTotal Transfer Variance (m)
1CD Leganes£38.96
2Real Betis£35.66
3CA Osasuna£21.01
4 ↑ (6)Granada CF£9.12
5 ↓ (4)Levante UD£6.12
6 ↓ (5)RCD Espanyol£4.51
7Villareal CF£3.70
8 ↑ (9)Athletic Bilbao*£0.00
9 ↑ (10)RCD Mallorca*£0.00
10 ↓ (8)Deportivo Alaves-£0.82
11Real Valladolid-£3.16
 12 ↑ (16)SD Eibar-£3.44
13Celta Vigo-£7.73
14Real Sociedad-£11.79
15 ↓ (12)Getafe CF-£15.92
16 ↓ (15)Valencia CF-£21.40
17Atletico Madrid-£23.94
18Sevilla FC-£73.35
19FC Barcelona-£81.56
20Real Madrid-£209.08
*Athletic Bilbao and RCD Mallorca made no ‘significant’ (£2m or above) transfers.

Over in Spain, both Athletic Bilbao and RCD Mallorca rose a single position without making any significant transfers due to Alaves’ sale of Mubarak Wakaso. The Ghanaian midfielder was sold for £3.60m, despite being valued at £5.77m. This caused the Club’s overall variance to become negative, falling to -£0.82m.

RCD Espanyol completed three ‘significant’ transfers in the January transfer window, with Raul de Tomas, Adrian Embarba and Leandro Carbrera all joining the Club. Both Embarba and Carbrera joined for fees below their market value although with a valuation of £11.41m, the £18.45m purchase of Raul de Tomas offset both of the previous purchases and saw the Catalan Club drop to sixth in the La Liga transfer efficiency table.

Bundesliga

Position / (Previous)ClubTotal Transfer Variance (m)
1Eintracht Frankfurt£100.93
2TSG Hoffenheim£25.36
3 ↑ (4)FSV Mainz£14.00
4 ↑ (5)FC Koln£13.65
5 ↓ (3)Borussia Dortmund£10.93
6Borussia Monchengladbach£10.34
7SV Werder Bremen£1.38
8 ↑ (10)Union Berlin*£0.00
9 ↑ (11)SC Freiburg-£2.27
10 ↑ (12)Fortuna Dusseldorf-£3.09
11 ↓ (9)SC Paderborn-£3.25
12 ↑ (14)FC Schalke-£12.09
13 ↑ (15)FC Augsburg-£15.28
14 ↓ (13)VfL Wolfsburg-£16.30
15 ↑ (16)RB Leipzig-£20.18
16 ↓ (8)Hertha BSC-£35.61
17Bayer Leverkusen-£52.16
18Bayern Munich-£76.08
*Union Berlin made no ‘significant’ (£2m or above) transfers.

Hertha BSC were the biggest movers since the previous review in the Bundesliga. The Capital Club completed four ‘significant’ transfers over the Winter with Krzysztof Piatek, Matheus Cunha, Santiago Ascacibar and Lucas Tousart all coming in although the latter was immediately loaned back to Olympique Lyon for the remainder of the season. All four players were purchased for fees greater than their calculated market values, attributing to an overall variance of -£36.23m for the January window and leading to the Club’s drop to 16th in the Bundesliga transfer efficiency table. 

Fortuna Dusseldorf rose two places to 10th after purchasing Dawid Kownacki from Sampdoria. The Polish international striker is valued at £10.53m but joined the Club permanently for a fee of £6.75m, producing a positive variance of £3.78m for the Club’s January transfer window activity.

Serie A

Position / (Previous)ClubTotal Transfer Variance (m)
1Atalanta BC£58.87
2Genoa CFC£21.78
3SPAL£23.33
4 ↑ (7)Inter Milan£19.12
5 ↓ (4)Udinese£18.32
6↑ (17)Hellas Verona£11.38
7 ↓ (5)Sampdoria£10.88
8 ↓ (6)Torino£8.64
9 ↑ (10)Parma£0.37
10 ↓ (8)Lecce*£0.00
 11 ↓ (9)Sassuolo-£0.71
12 ↓ (11)SS Lazio-£4.61
13 ↑ (14)AS Roma-£6.38
14 ↑ (16)Cagliari-£7.74
15 ↓ (12)Brescia-£8.09
16 ↓ (13)ACF Fiorentina-£19.11
17 ↓ (15)Napoli-£27.14
18Bologna FC-£30.75
19 ↑ (20)AC Milan-£43.31
20 ↓ (19)Juventus-£61.67
*Lecce made no ‘significant’ (£2m or above) transfers.

Hellas Verona rose 11 places in the Serie A efficiency table thanks to their business in the January transfer window. In total, the Club completed four ‘significant’ transfers with Mariusz Stepinski and Sofyan Amrabat joining on permanent deals before Amrabat was immediately sold onto Fiorentina whilst Amir Rrahmani was sold to Napoli. However, both Amrabat and Rrahmani then returned to Verona on loan deals until the end of the season. In the deal involving Amrabat, the Moroccan midfielder, valued at £3.96m, was purchased permanently for £3.15m before being sold to Fiorentina for £18m. In total, this generated a positive variance of almost £15m for Verona whilst the same deal caused Fiorentina to drop three places in the efficiency table to 16th.

Similarly, Rrahmani was sold to Napoli for significantly more than his calculated valuation whilst Stepinski was brought into the Club for below his valuation. In total, Hellas Verona’s overall transfer variance for the January transfer window was £26.58m.

Brescia dropped three positions in the efficiency table after completing a single transfer in the January transfer window with Simon Skrabb joining the side. As the player joined from the Allsvenskan and plays for the Finnish national team, he has no experience at the top level of European or International football. This means that Skrabb’s current valuation is limited which caused the Club’s drop in the table.

Ligue 1

Position / (Previous)ClubTotal Transfer Variance (m)
1LOSC Lille£61.33
2AS Saint-Etienne£38.52
3 ↑ (4)FC Nantes£23.57
4 ↑ (6)Girondins Bordeaux£23.21
5 ↓ (3)Angers SCO£22.78
6 ↓ (5)Olympique Lyon£12.82
7RC Strasbourg Alsace£10.11
8 ↑ (16)FC Metz£0.48
9 ↓ (8)Stade Brest*£0.00
10Olympique Marseille-£1.97
11 ↓ (9)Stade Rennais-£2.59
12Stade Reims-£4.27
13 ↓ (11)Nimes Olympique-£4.90
14FC Toulouse-£7.45
15SC Amiens-£7.91
16 ↑ (18)OGC Nice-£7.84
17Montpellier HSC-£9.57
18 ↑ (19)Paris Saint-Germain-£14.44
19 ↑ (20)Dijon FCO-£17.09
20 ↓ (13)AS Monaco-£47.22
*Stade Brest made no ‘significant’ (£2m or above) transfers.

Next to France, where AS Monaco dropped to the bottom of the efficiency table from their previous position of 13th. In total, five players joined the Club over the January transfer window, with no ‘significant’ departures. All five players who joined Monaco in the Winter were 21 years old or younger, continuing the Club’s philosophy of recruiting foreign talent, nurturing it over a few seasons and then selling these players on for a profit. Whilst all of these players generated negative variances, each player’s value is expected to increase significantly over the next few years so long as they are afforded sufficient game time. For this reason, the Club’s position at the bottom of the table should be taken with a pinch of salt.

FC Metz shot up to 8th position in the efficiency table after completing a single transfer over the Winter. Dylan Bronn was purchased for £3.60m but is valued at £9.37m thanks to his considerable experience in the Pro League for KAA Gent and the Tunisian national team, as well as being classified as a homegrown player. This contributed a positive variance of almost £6m and led to Metz’s rise in the rankings.

Russian Premier League

Position / (Previous)ClubTotal Transfer Variance (m)
1FC Sochi£8.11
2Krylya Sovetov£1.00
3FK Tambov*£0.00
4Ural Yekaterinburg*£0.00
5Akhmat Grozny*£0.00
6FK Orenburg*£0.00
7Arsenal Tula*£0.00
8Lokomotiv Moscow-£0.24
9FK Rostov-£1.66
10CSKA Moscow-£1.76
11FK Ufa-£3.11
12Rubin Kazan-£7.43
13Spartak Moscow-£12.67
14 ↑ (15)FK Krasnodar-£17.31
15 ↓ (14)Dinamo Moscow-£18.28
16Zenit St Petersburg-£44.44
*These clubs made no ‘significant’ (£2m or above) transfers. 

The only movement in Russia saw FK Krasnodar overtake Dinamo Moscow in the efficiency rankings. Through the January window, Krasnodar sold three players; Ivan Ignatjev, Christian Cueva and Dmitri Skopintsev. Both Ignatjev and Skopintsev were sold for fees slightly above their market value. However, Cueva left for significantly below his valuation. The experienced Peruvian international was sold for just £5.40m to Santos and meant that overall, Krasnodar finished the window with a negative variance overall.

Thankfully for the Bulls, Dinamo Moscow also ended the window with a negative transfer variance over January. The Capital club completed two ‘significant’ transfers, with Dmitri Skopintsev and Nikolay Komlichenko coming in. As previously mentioned, the transfer of Skopintsev contributed a slight overspend from Dinamo’s perspective after bringing the player in from Krasnodar. With Komlichenko, his lack of experience at the top level of European football as well as limited appearances for the Russian national side provided a valuation of £0.58m. Purchased by Dinamo Moscow for £3.15m, this contributed an overspend of £2.57m and led to the Club’s drop in position in the efficiency table.

Liga NOS

Position / (Previous)ClubTotal Transfer Variance (m)
1SL Benfica£82.80
2FC Porto£39.17
3Sporting CP£36.59
4 ↑ (18)Vitoria Guimaraes£12.79
5 ↓ (4)SC Braga£9.60
6 ↓ (5)Rio Ave FC£3.32
7 ↓ (6)Boavista Porto£1.82
8 ↓ (7)CD Santa Clara£0.60
9 ↓ (8)Moreirense FC£0.48
10 ↓ (9)Portimonense SC*£0.00
11 ↓ (10)CS Martimo*£0.00
12 ↓ (11)GD Chaves*£0.00
13 ↓ (12)Desportivo Aves*£0.00
14 ↓ (13)CD Tondela*£0.00
15 ↓ (14)CD Feirense*£0.00
16 ↓ (15)CD Nacional*£0.00
17 ↓ (16)Belenenses-£0.01
18 ↓ (17)Vitoria Setubal-£0.69
*These clubs made no ‘significant’ (£2m or above) transfers. 

 

Finally in Portugal, where Vitoria Guimaraes shot up from 18th to 4th position in the table after their January transfer window dealings. The Club only made one ‘significant’ transfer, selling Edmond Tapsoba to Bayer Leverkusen for a fee of £16.20m. The player only broke into Vitoria’s first team at the start of the season after coming through the Club’s youth side and therefore has very limited experience of first team football. Similarly, despite already making six senior international appearances for Burkina Faso, due to the nation’s low FIFA world ranking provides little additional value.

For these reasons, the centre-back was valued at just £1.97m, meaning that the transfer contributed a positive variance of £14.23m for Vitoria and led to the Club’s rise in the efficiency rankings.

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