Jonathan Panzo: How market values change throughout a player’s career

Jonathan Panzo, Monaco

Our estimated market value calculator can also be used to predict a player’s future value by making assumptions on their potential career path. In order to demonstrate this, we will take a closer look at the Monaco and England U21 player, Jonathan Panzo. Panzo has been selected to reveal how his future career choices at Club and International level could impact his valuation.

As always, these proposed valuations do not account for a player’s current ability, future potential or marketability. They are solely based on a player’s experience.

Current Season

Panzo spent the 19/20 season on loan at Cercle Brugge from Monaco, making 18 first-team appearances before the Pro League season was cancelled due to Covid-19. He has also made three international appearances for the England U21 side at just 19 years of age. Capable of playing as a left-back or centre-back, the majority of Panzo’s appearances have been on the left-side of defence this season, therefore, the player will be valued as a full-back. Taking all of these factors into account, Panzo’s current estimated market value is £1.15m.

2020/21 Season – Further development year

At this point, we begin to project the career of the young Englishman. Looking at AS Monaco’s first-team squad, they have five players capable of playing in Panzo’s primary position at left-back. Of these players, Ruben Aguilar is the elder statesman at 27 years old. Whilst speculation surrounds the future of Fode Ballo-Toure and whether he will remain in the Principality, the Club would still have sufficient depth without Toure or Panzo.

A similar picture emerges at centre-back, with five natural central defenders already on the Club’s books. These players include club captain Kamil Glik, Jemerson and Guillermo Maripan. The aforementioned three defenders are generally rotated in the first team, with young prospects Jean Marcelin and Benoit Badiashile providing depth.

Whilst Panzo could potentially earn some game-time at Monaco, the competition for places is currently very high and therefore he may be limited to very few appearances. For this reason, another loan move seems likely. After proving he is ready for first-team football in Belgium, Monaco’s preference is expected to be to loan the player to another Ligue 1 team further down the table in order to gain match experience in the top tier of French football.

Toulouse had the worst defense in Ligue 1 last season but the Club’s top two performers last season were left-back Issiaga Sylla and centre-back Gen Shoji, receiving average WhoScored ratings of 6.89 and 6.81 respectively. Therefore, priority in the market would likely to be to strengthen other positions.

Amiens had the second worst defense in the league last season yet may be better suited for Panzo. This is because first-choice left-back Haitam Aleesami averaged a 6.55 WhoScored rating and the only back-ups in the left-back position are Sanasi Sy, who is yet to make an appearance for the Club, and Christophe Jallet, who is naturally a right-back and is also in the latter stages of his career at 36 years of age. Similar issues arise at centre-back where the Club’s best performer in this position was 34 year old Aurelien Chedjou who averaged a 6.60 WhoScored rating. The only other central defender to average above a 6.50 average rating was Club captain Prince Gouano, who made just three league appearances before missing the remainder of the season with a virus. It is unknown when the player will return to football.

For these reasons, Panzo would seem to be an ideal loan signing for Amiens and could potentially slot straight into the first-team. So, lets assume that in the 2020/21 season, Panzo makes 25 first-team appearances for Amiens (across League and Cup competitions).

On the international stage, Panzo has played in three of the seven England U21 games since his first call-up. However, for the 2020/21 season, Ben Godfrey will no longer be eligible for the U21s. Therefore, Panzo’s game time is expected to increase. At the time of writing, the England U21s have six fixtures scheduled which are all qualifiers for the U21 Euros. However, the U21s have played at least 10 matches in the previous five years. If we consider that four friendlies are arranged and Panzo plays in 60% of the international games throughout the season, he will have made nine international appearances.

When accounting for these assumptions, Panzo’s value would be £3.88m at this point. With this valuation, the player’s market value will exceed the £2.70m fee paid by Monaco for Panzo in the Summer of 2018.    

2021/22 Season – Becoming an established first-team player

Panzo’s loan spell at Amiens would now have ended and the player would return to Monaco. For this season, lets assume that Monaco have adjusted their squad to fit Panzo into a fairly regular first-team role. If we consider the possibility that Monaco qualifies for continental football, then Panzo could make 30 appearances over the course of the season.

The big decision this season is likely to be the player’s international career. Panzo would still be eligible to play for the England U21’s at this stage and whilst a senior international call-up may not be out of the picture, the young defender is also eligible to play for the Cote d’Ivoire. The latter nation currently sits 61st in the FIFA world rankings whilst England are 4th. Despite Gareth Southgate’s focus on youth development, with players such as John Stones, Harry Maguire and Tyrone Mings still being in their late 20s at this stage and Fikayo Tomori, Ben Chilwell and Joe Gomez entering their mid 20s, competition for places is expected to be high.

Whilst Panzo could be offered the chance to impress in friendly matches for the senior side, with the Cote d’Ivoire, he could slot straight into the first-team set-up. With the Qatar World Cup taking place in Winter 2020, the likelihood of Panzo playing in the competition would be much higher with the African nation, should they qualify.

Over the previous five years, the Cote d’Ivoire have played an average of 10 matches per season whilst England have averaged 12 matches per season over the same period. If we estimate that Panzo would appear in 80% of games if he selected to play for the African nation or 25% of games for the Country of his birth, we see the following scenarios.

 If Panzo selects Cote d’IvoireIf Panzo selects England
Estimated International Appearances*83
Current International Ranking61st4th
Estimated Market Value£5.61m£6.19m
*As Panzo would still be eligible for the England U21s, these appearances have been accounted for in both scenarios.

As shown above, Panzo’s valuation would be higher at this point in his career if he elected to play for England.

2022/23 Season – Return to England

Due to UEFA regulations, homegrown players are always in high demand. This is especially the case in the Premier League, where young, established English players are in short supply. As we see with the cases of Jadon Sancho and Gareth Bale, when any British players succeed abroad, rumours begin to swirl about Premier League clubs trying to bring them home.

For this reason, we will now examine the scenario of Panzo returning to the Premier League. Liverpool are known to be in the market for back-up options in the left-back and centre-back positions. Panzo would slot straight into either of these positions and seeing the success of Joe Gomez covering the same positions on the right-hand side, this would surely be a tantalising option for the player. Whilst Liverpool would be expected to have filled this gap by this point in the future, we cannot accurately predict how Premier League squads will appear in three seasons time. Therefore, we will consider that Panzo moves to Liverpool for this scenario.

Over the previous five seasons, Liverpool have played an average of 55 matches per season. As Panzo would be a rotational option in this scenario, lets estimate that he appears in 40% of these games, making 22 appearances.

On the International stage, we will continue with the same scenario that was presented in the previous year. This equates to three additional caps for the English national team or eight additional caps for Cote d’Ivoire. However, Panzo will no longer be eligible for the England U21s so these appearances will now be discounted.

 If Panzo selects Cote d’IvoireIf Panzo selects England
Estimated Market Value£6.49m£8.22m

2023/24 Season – Becoming a Regular

For the final scenario we will examine, lets consider that Panzo becomes a first-team regular for Club and Country, featuring in 80% of all matches. This equates to 44 games played per season and an additional 8 or 9 (rounded down) international caps per year depending on the national team that Panzo elects to play for. We will also project this scenario forward to demonstrate how a player’s value will rise and fall as they age.

The table below reveals Panzo’s estimated market value based on the scenarios presented in the 2023/2024 season.

 If Panzo selects Cote d’IvoireIf Panzo selects England
Estimated Market Value£14.52m£20.81m

The chart below reveals Panzo’s estimated market value throughout his career based on the assumptions and scenarios presented in this study. It should be noted that the player’s value peaks at the age of 26. This is considered to be the age that a full-back’s value is at its highest because this is the start of their peak years. After this point, the player’s value begins to drop due to the limited resale value that the purchasing club would achieve for the player as, towards the end of their contract, they are likely to be approaching the end of their career.

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